The N3.3 Trillion Question: Why Experts Are Skeptical of Tinubu’s Power Sector Debt Plan

President Bola Ahmed Tinubu’s recent approval of N3.3 trillion to clear a decade’s worth of "legacy debt" in the power sector was intended to be a milestone. Instead, it has sparked a firestorm of criticism from industry insiders and frustrated consumers alike.

As Nigeria continues to grapple with a fragile grid—producing a mere 3,345 megawatts as of early April 2026—the big question remains: Is this a genuine rescue mission or just more "propaganda" in the dark?

A Breakdown in Communication

The controversy began shortly after Presidential Spokesperson Bayo Onanuga announced the settlement plan. Rather than relief, the news was met with immediate pushback from the very people it was meant to help.

The GenCos' Alarm: Joy Ogaji, CEO of the Association of Generation Companies (APGC), questioned the math. She raised concerns over how the presidency arrived at the N3.3 trillion figure, noting that the GenCos themselves—the creditors—were largely left out of the verification process.

The Media Skepticism: On social media, the debate turned heated. Arise TV anchor Rufai Oseni labeled the announcement "propaganda," pointing out inconsistencies between this figure and earlier statements made by the Minister of Power, Adebayo Adelabu.

Why N3.3 Trillion Might Not Be Enough

While the sum sounds astronomical, experts argue it barely scratches the surface of the sector's financial rot.

"The presidency is playing games," says Ewetumo A. A., a veteran of the defunct PHCN. He suggests the government is "romanticizing" the debt without actually paying it.

According to Ewetumo, the true scale of the crisis is far larger:

Total Sector Debt: Estimated at N12 trillion.

GenCo Specific Debt: Estimated at N6 trillion.

He notes that despite the government "parroting" the N3.3 trillion figure since 2024, there is still no transparent payment framework or a public list of beneficiaries.

The "Data" Problem: Corruption in the Numbers

Kunle Olubiyo, President of the Nigeria Consumer Protection Network, argues that even if the money is paid, the power won’t necessarily stay on. He points to a fundamental flaw: The data is unreliable.

Olubiyo warns that the debt figures lack "scientifically verifiable standards," making them easy targets for manipulation. Without structural reforms and credible data, he believes the N3.3 trillion will be swallowed by the same "human factors" and corruption that have stalled the sector for years.

The Power Crisis by the Numbers (April 2026)

The Power Crisis by the Numbers (April 2026)
Approved Debt Settlement	N3.3 Trillion
Estimated Total Industry Debt	N12 Trillion
Current Grid Allocation	3,345 MW
Recent Resettlement Bond	N501 Billion